Remote sensing-based land cover classification and change detection using Sentinel-2 data and Random Forest : A case study of Rusinga Island, Kenya

Abstract: Healthy forests and soils are crucial for the very existence of mankind as they provide food, clean water and air, shade and protection against floods and storms. With their photosynthetic carbon storage ability, they mitigate climate change and fertilise and stabilise soils. Unfortunately, deforestation and the loss of fertile soils are the bleak reality and among the world’s most pressing challenges. Over the past decades Kenya has faced severe deforestation, but efforts are being undertaken to reverse deforestation, revegetate degraded land and combat erosion. Satellite remote sensing technology becomes increasingly useful for vegetation monitoring as the data quality improves and the costs decrease. This thesis explores the potential of free open access Sentinel-2 data for vegetation monitoring through Random Forest land cover classification and post-classification change detection on Rusinga Island, Kenya. Different single-date and multi-temporal predictor datasets differentiating respectively between five and four classes were examined to develop the most suitable model. The classification achieved acceptable results when assessed on an independent test dataset (overall accuracy of 90.06% with five classes and 96.89% with four classes), which should however be confirmed on the ground and could potentially be improved with better reference data. In this study, change detection could only be analysed over a time frame of two years, which is too short to produce meaningful results. Nevertheless, the method was proven conceptually and could be applied in the future to monitor land cover changes on Rusinga Island.