Democratization of Intelligence? Comparing Vietnam and Ukraine

Abstract: This study explores how a contemporary systemic shift regarding secrecy and intelligence is affecting the strategic performance of states engaged in overt or covert intervention. These changes are conceptualized by researchers as “implausible deniability”, “delayed disclosure” and “the democratization of intelligence” and their significance are applied to limited-war theory with a theoretical focus on acknowledgment and open secrets. Comparative case study methodology and narrative analysis are used to find and explore this change. Arguing that if it has taken place, it should be found, and explored in a contemporary case where these theoretical factors exist. This case is compared to a historical case, predating the change but which contains similar dynamics, as a reference and point of comparison. Reporting and deliberations on Soviet surface-to-air missile support to North Vietnam during Operation Rolling Thunder are compared to a contemporary case when the Moskva was sunk during the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year. Due to this systemic shift secrecy is being replaced by ambiguity and non-acknowledgment. Mobilizing support for interventions in the future will probably require just cause, and harnessing secrecy as a source of state power might be increasingly difficult.