Export-led growth? : The case of Brazil

Abstract: With an ever-increasing globalising world, trade is of most importance for developing countries to not fall behind and be outcompeted. Export-led growth theory states that one of the key determinants for economic growth is exports. This thesis aims to analyse the causal effects of exports on economic growth in the case of Brazil. Annual data from the World Bank’s database for the years 1990-2018 has been used. The variables included are GDP, exports, gross capital formation, FDI and labour force. This study puts the export-led growth theory in a Vector Error Correction – Granger Causality framework. As opposed to previous scholars’ findings, neither export-led growth nor growth-led export could be determined for Brazil.