Icelandic Glacial Ice Volume Changes and its Contribution to Sea Level Rise since the Little Ice Age Maximum

Abstract: Satellite imagery and volume-area scaling are used to asses the glacier area and ice volume of Iceland from the Little Ice Age maximum to present day, obtaining a final result in sea level rise between 1890 - 2015. The Little Ice Age was a time of regional cooling, with glaciers reaching their maximum extent (~1890 for Iceland) with warming and glacier retreat after this period ended. Ice volume estimates are important to know due to their relevance in potential sea level rise calculations. Understanding both of these estimations for Iceland connects the impact a changing climate has on regional and global scales. Different scaling parameters used in the volume-area scaling approach to determine ice volume and ultimately sea level equivalents highlight the range of estimates acquired and point out the need in choosing appropriate values based on glacier region. A comparison to using mass balance measurements for volume estimates is also noted, showing differences in ice volume loss over past and present time periods. The Icelandic glacier area for present day is an updated value from previous studies at 10,803 ± 83 km2 and a first ever reported Icelandic Little Ice Age maximum glacier area of 12,201 ± 91 km2. For potential sea level rise, it is found the most reliable estimate from the volume- area scaling assessment is 2.67 mm from the Little Ice Age maximum to present day, with a yearly contribution since 1890 of 0.02 mm.