Proving Their Worth : Does Ukrainian battlefield success increase Western military aid commitments?

Abstract: On the 24th of February 2022, interstate war on a scale unseen since World War II returned to Europe, causing devastating suffering and loss of human life. As of writing, Ukraine’s ability to demonstrate battlefield success is frequently cited as key to sustain Western political willpower to send military aid. This study aims to test presumptions of a positive feedback loop between military assistance and its successful implementation with a mixed-method approach. Regression models analyze time-series data tracking a year of 33 countries’ military aid commitments to Ukraine using random effects (RE) to control for unobserved, country-specific and varying mediating variables. Based on German aversiveness to military solutions, a least-likely case debate analysis analyzes three Bundestag debates to uncover lawmakers’ justifications for approving or rejecting military aid proposals. Applying a theory-generating analysis framework, battlefield successes are confirmed as recurring arguments used to enforce pro-aid narratives, but do not necessarily overcome factors constraining military aid commitments. The RE regression finds a statistically significant positive relationship between Ukrainian battlefield success and military aid commitments. This raises immense implications for Ukrainian decisionmakers, who may be compelled to prioritize short-term military gains to secure future Western support.