Stochastic Optimization of Asset Management Project Portfolios: A Risk-Informed Approach

Abstract: Asset management within the nuclear industry has become an increasingly relevant topic as safety requirements have tightened and energy security has become more important. Asset management ensures performance and reliability in a nuclear facility by balancing costs, opportunities, and risks to get the most out of assets. Asset management processes can often be modeled as capital budgeting problems, where investments are evaluated based on costs and benefits, which establishes a link to mathematical optimization. This study addresses asset management at the Swedish nuclear power plant, Forsmark, and aims to implement an optimization model to improve the project selection related to maintenance and replacement of assets at the plant. First, the most relevant areas of nuclear asset management are identified through a comprehensive literature review. The most relevant method, identified as a mix between risk-informed asset management and capital budgeting, is then implemented to fit the prerequisites at Forsmark. Several models of different complexity are developed and the resulting stochastic model incorporates uncertainty of input variables by assuming underlying distributions. Finally, a methodology to incorporate a quantitative risk measure in the optimization is suggested through the use of conditional value at risk. Results are generated based on simulated data and illustrate the potential of implementing the method at Forsmark.