Drought and Extremism - How Climate Change Impacts the Power of Boko Haram in Northeastern Nigeria

Abstract: Findings about the relationship between climate change and conflict has, since research on the topic started in the late 1990s, been inconclusive. A more recent statistical study has however concluded that drought might prolong conflict under certain conditions. To further our understanding of this relationship, this single-N case study has investigated these recent findings on an extreme case, which is the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria. The insurgency was pushed back in 2015 by a multilateral government response but has in spite of this remained a threat in the region as of 2020. This study reveals a complex chain of events which has led to Boko Haram still being able to operate, thus prolonging the conflict. Structural conditions coupled with drought, in combination with deliberate Boko Haram action’s serve to make this region increasingly fragile to further climatic shocks. By placing drought within the causal chain of events this study elevates the common perception of drought being a “threat” to an integral part of the process of prolonging conflict and increasing instability.