Drought, Mechanisms and Terror: The role of crop harvests in increasing the intensity of terrorism.

Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate whether crops are a mechanism through which drought affects terrorist activity. The theory suggests that drought can affect conflict if the group or country affected also is dependent on agriculture, experiences low economic development and is politically excluded. This study adds the perspective that decreased crop harvests, due to drought, can be understood as economic shocks through the opportunity cost effect. Previous research indicates that the current big question within the climate-conflict field is how climate change affects conflict. This study employs a time series panel data approach and concludes that decreased harvests of millet can be one, of many mechanisms, through which drought affects conflict in a sample of sub-Saharan countries. Establishing causal factors, like this study tries to do, could help us more effectively mitigate the effects drought have on fragile states in a warming climate. Another contribution is that it tests whether drought anomalies has had an impact on terrorist activity and concludes that the results show a significant positive trend when tested over time and space.