Loan Loss Provisions and Lending Activity in Banks : A quantitative study comparing the effects of loan loss provisions on lending activity in banks applying IFRS 9 and ASC 326

Abstract: As a response to the financial crisis of 2008 the IASB and the FASB developed IFRS 9 and ASC 326, respectively. These accounting regulations are supposed to increase reporting transparency and promote financial stability by determining the calculation and recognition of loan loss provisions. However, previous literature has brought up concerns that loan loss provisions can negatively impact the lending activity in banks. If that was the case, they would negatively affect the amount of capital available in an economy and thereby threaten financial stability and economic growth especially during times of economic downturns. To shed light on this topic, this thesis investigates the relationship between loan loss provisions and lending activity in banks applying IFRS and US GAAP. The thesis provides practical as well as theoretical implications as it discusses the findings in a practical context and relates it to relevant theories.  The dataset utilized includes empirical data from Q1 2020 until Q4 2022 and covers 330 banks from 38 countries. The data was gathered from Refinitiv´s Eikon database as well as from the International Monetary Fund. It was then statistically analyzed by conducting different kinds of statistical inference. All methods applied are of a quantitative nature and the underlying methodology is positivist. The results of this thesis suggest that loan loss provisions under IFRS 9 are on average higher than under ASC 326. Further, it was found that loan loss provisions under IFRS 9 exhibit a statistically significant negative relationship with lending activity. In contrast, this relationship was found to be insignificant under ASC 326. Together, these findings suggest that higher loan loss provisions have a negative effect on lending activity. It is concluded that the impairment model of IFRS 9 might compromise financial stability by limiting lending activities during times of economic turmoil.  Additionally, due to the increased room for managerial judgment under IFRS 9 it is theorized that the higher loan loss provisions can be the result of earnings management. Loan loss provisions under IFRS 9 could thus be more supported by Agency theory. On the other hand, ASC 326 offers less room for managerial discretion and could be more supported by Stewardship theory. This thesis also suggests topics for potential future research. The knowledge about loan loss provisions and their effects on lending activity could be extended by using different variables in the regression model. Additionally, a longer timeframe as well as other accounting standards could be investigated. Furthermore, the effects of loan loss provisions on loan quality and risk management in banks are in need of further examination. Lastly, the capital requirements of Basel III and their impact on procyclicality should be researched.