Information Acquisition and Conflict Outbreak

Abstract: Using a game-theoretic framework, we investigate the role of uncertainty of information for states that make decisions about whether or not to go to war to acquire resources. In our model, a player may receive a signal about the strength of the opponent with some probability, which makes this piece of information come with a degree of uncertainty. We find that the impact of uncertainty in the acquisition of information depends on the ex-ante resource incentives players face. In situations where peace just barely prevails, uncertainty increases the risk of war. On the other hand, where war with certainty occurs without information about player types, more uncertainty lowers the probability of conflict outbreak.