Impact of Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Information on Expected Credit Losses According to IFRS 9

University essay from KTH/Matematik (Avd.)

Author: Christian Corfitsen; [2021]

Keywords: IFRS 9; Expected credit loss; ECL; VAR; Vector Autoregression; Forecasting; Impulse Response Analysis; Forecast Error Variance Decomposition; IFRS 9; Expected credit loss; ECL; VAR; Vektorautoregression; Prognostisering; Impulsresponsanalys; Forecast error variance decomposition;

Abstract: In this master thesis, the impact of forward-looking macroeconomic information under IFRS 9 is studied using fictional data from a Swedish mortgage loan portfolio. The study employs a time series analysis approach and employs vector autoregression models to model expected credit loss parameters with multiple incorporated macroeconomic parameters. The models are analyzed using impulse response functions to study the impact of macroeconomic shocks and the results show that the unemployment rate, USD/SEK exchange rate and 3-month interest rates have a significant impact on expected credit losses.

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