Sweden’s proposed excise tax on plastic bags -Using a stated preference method to evaluate outcomes

Abstract: The 1st of May 2020, the Swedish government will implement an excise tax on plastic bags. Using a stated preference method, this paper explores the effects the excise tax will have on plastic bag consumption. The vast majority of plastic bags that are sold in Sweden are grocery store bags. Therefore, this study focuses on the consumption effects on grocery store bags, as opposed to plastic bags that are sold in other types of stores. Intercept surveys were conducted outside of four different grocery stores. Using the data gathered during the surveys, we calculate the average consumption decrease given three different price scenarios. Further, data on consumption habits in regard to the so called “fruit bags” was also collected. Using this data, we were able to calculate the consumption decrease at two different price levels for fruit bags. This study finds that, given a price increase of 3 SEK, plastic bag consumption will decrease by almost 36%. The consumption of plastic bags decreased by 11% between 2017 and 2018, and if this trend continues after the excise is implemented, we believe that it is possible to reach the EU consumption target of 40 plastic bags per person per year in 2025, but it is unsure if any further action is needed.