A SUITABILITY MODEL WITH FUZZY LOGIC : Wine Industry Suitability Under Changing Climate

Abstract: The grapevine is one of the most cultivated crops in the world. It requires several environmental conditions besides the winemakers’ practices. The practices of the winemakers have a great impact on the quality of the product, yet it is also depending on the pre-existing features of the cultivation’s sites. Those features are categorised into 3 as atmospheric, topographic and soil conditions and each contains several criteria derived from earlier studies. These conditions are generally not expected to change for centuries, but atmospheric conditions are subject to considerable change due to the climate change. The categories are used to build the Vineyard Suitability Model with fuzzy logic and applied to the study area, Skåne, Sweden. The model is applied in 4 versions which are according to the current and 3 scenarios of atmospheric conditions according to climate change projections for 2050. The model results indicate that the study area currently possesses a low potential for the wine industry to emerge. However, the impact of climate change appears to turn a considerable size of cultivated area into high potential sites. The results appear to be valid since the study area is just above the conventional wine production latitudes in the Northern hemisphere and considered to be too cold for grapevine production.