Joinpoint regression analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic curve in Sweden : A descriptive trend analysis of the different regions in Sweden

Abstract: Since the beginning of the global outbreak, the Swedish Public Health Agency has been closely monitoring the situation regarding COVID-19. Understanding and mapping the behaviour of the COVID-19 epidemic curve in Sweden is of great interest and conducting a descriptive analysis may yield additional important insights. This thesis focused on determining when a potential trend changes occurred by studying time series over the trend development of the COVID-19 incidence rates provided by the Swedish Public Health Agency. Joinpoint regression with grid search were used to analyse each individual region as well as the nation. Results from respective analyses were used to compare if a region notably differed from the national trend in regard to location and trend. The findings indicated that there are more potential changes in trends in the data than identified and that several regions appeared to differ from the nation, implying that more research is required.