Risk Modelling in Payment Guarantees

Abstract: The Swedish Export Credit Agency (EKN) issues payment guarantees to Swedish companies who face the risk of non-payments in export transactions. Commitments are typically correlated, as defaults of companies are driven by other factors than factors specific to that company, such as the economic cycle or the regional conditions. In deciding upon how much capital to be reserved to remain solvent even in an unlikely scenario, this has to be accounted for in order to not underestimate financial risks.By studying models for credit risk and the research available in the area, the popular CreditRisk+ has been chosen as a suitable model for EKN to use in risk assessments. The model together with a few customizations are described in detail and tested on data from EKN.