Forecasting the Congestion Costs of the French Transmission Network

Abstract: In the chain of electrical energy, the proper operation of transmission networks is essential forguaranteeing the reliability of energy supply to consumers. However, for economical andphysical reasons, transmissions network cannot have an infinite capacity. Therefore operatingconstraints such as voltage stability and line overloads can lead to congestions by preventingthe transmission system operator from transferring electricity according to the market desire.To avoid outages due to congestions, congestion management methods have been developedby transmission system operators. In France, congestions are managed by the transmissionsystem operator (RTE: Réseau de Transport d'Electricité) through a balancing mechanism. Itaims at adjusting the production of some specific power plants. This regulation has a cost.This cost paid by RTE is important since it has an impact on the rate charged for using thepublic transmission and distribution network. However the congestion cost is hardlypredictable since it depends on the availability of load, generation and transmission devices.In this master thesis, historical data will be analyzed to study the geographical structure andthe causes of congestion in French transmission network. Moreover, a method to forecast thecongestion costs will be described. First dynamic simulations are run to find the constraintsissued by voltage stability. Then scenarios are created by a Monte-Carlo simulator to knowthe probability of occurrences of situations with constraints. Finally, the amount of regulatedproduction activated to solve congestion issues must be valued to derive a cost. The pricingissues are tackled by focusing on the marginal balancing price and the prices of the offerssubmitted to the balancing mechanism. The method is used to forecast the congestion costs atseveral horizons of time. The results are analyzed and some other utilization of this methodare discussed.