Analyzing the Short-Run Phillips Curve: The Case of Sweden 1997-2022 : Capturing the effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Ukraine Conflict on the Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment

Abstract: This paper seeks to investigate whether a short-run Phillips curve exists between 1997-2022, and if there are evident changes in the trade-off since 2020, which could be due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. As the macroeconomic environment has changed drastically in the last couple of years, both as a result of the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, the relationship evolvement of the Phillips curve since the start of 2020 is of particular interest to investigate. The method used in this study is consistent with the approach utilized by Svensson (2015) in his estimation of the Phillips curve. However, Svensson’s study covers the period between 1997:Q4-2011:Q4, while our study portrays the short-run relationship until 2022:Q4. Additionally, dummy variables are incorporated into the OLS regression using robust standard errors to account for the impact of the economic disruptions since 2020. This study suggests that Sweden has a negative short-run Phillips curve equal to -2.5 for the whole period investigated. However, the study cannot conclude that there is a statistically significant change in the trade-off of the short-run Phillips curve after the start of 2020.