Breaking the Silence. Nonviolent Resistance in Resilient Autocracies: Understanding the Effects of Framing Strategies on Popular Mobilization in Belarus and Russia.

Abstract: The study investigates the relationship between state repression and mass mobilization in resilient autocratic regimes. Using qualitative methods, I examine the question: How can state repression lead to mass participation of society in the nonviolent resistance movement? Developing Brian Martin’s (2012) theory, I hypothesize that framing of state repression by the regime and the opposition influence public perception and, in turn, participation levels. Four contemporary cases are analyzed: The Belarus Election Fraud Resistance 2020-2021, the Belarus Antiwar Resistance 2022, the Russia Navalny Resistance 2021, and the Russia Antiwar Resistance 2022. The findings acquired through the Structured Focused Comparison generally support the theory, demonstrating that well-organized and present opposition can effectively counter state strategies and encourage people with divided and negative perceptions of repression to take risks and join the nonviolent movement. Yet, the negative perception of repression alone is not enough to mobilize the masses in the face of high levels of repression. The magnitude of repression might affect people's motivations to join the nonviolent movement. The study emphasizes the importance of supporting opposition figures and organizations in repressive regimes to strengthen their capacity to mobilize the masses and suggests further research on the deterrent effect of repression.