Escalation in Eastern Europe : An Analysis of the Variables That Led to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022

Abstract: This essay aims to find a link between NATO policy in Europe from 2014-2022 to Russia’sdecision to invade Ukraine in February 2022. A process tracing methodology is used in conjunction with an offensive realist framework to demonstrate NATO’s role in influencing Russian defense policy. The investigation finds US global hegemony dictates NATOambitions, leading the Alliance to adopt aggressive policy in Eastern Europe. In turn, Russia identifies NATO as a threat in its military doctrine and proceeds to strengthen its defensive capabilities. Putin outlines Russia’s need for a buffer zone between it and NATO, a prime target for such a place being Ukraine. A failure by both parties to accommodate each others interests leaves Russia with a convincing rationale to seek military force in securing a more favorable defensive position.