Developing Extensions to the Walker-Unger Model in Consideration of the Panama Papers Leaks

Abstract: In 2016, the ICIJ independent organization released the leaks of the Panama Papers. Using the data presented, this thesis aims to evaluate and examine the models developed for the quantification of money laundering, analyze the variables that define the appeal of certain tax havens, and develop extensions to the Walker-Unger model. The proportion of illicit funds flowing from a source country to a host country was calculated using the Walker-Unger model as a reference while considering 35 source and 10 host countries. The variables were adjusted for statistical analyses input through multiple fractional probit regressions, and the outcome was compared to the original Walker-Unger estimates. At a 5% significance level, the research found significance between the account proportion and the independent variables. Furthermore, the evidence showcased more significant values obtained with the regression model, implying that the Walker-Unger model has become irrelevant in this modern era. Due to the following reasons, this study provides a perspective into improving the model through several recommendations.