Estimation of Cropland Ecological Footprint within Danish Climate Commissions 2050 Scenarios for Land use and Bioenergy Consumption

Abstract: The ecological footprint of Denmark has been rising since (and likely even before) 1961, which signifies an unsustainable living by the Danish population. Global footprint reports show Denmark as one of many countries on earth which has exceeded its biocapacity (BC), which means natural resource consumption in Denmark is faster than the land’s regenerative capacity. The residents of Denmark are consuming more than the BC locally available for the population. We would need a land area equivalent to the size of 4.51 planets (Earth) in 2008, if the world’s population lived in the same way as the Danish population In this research, the ecological footprint methodology, which tracks human demand on natural resources, was used to assess some underlying sustainability implications with respect to changes in the sizes of Danish cropland Ecological Deficit (ED), Ecological Overshoot (EO), Ecological Remainder (ER) and Ecological Trade Deficit (ETD) within the Danish Climate Commissions 2050 scenarios. The role of drivers in influencing cropland footprint of consumption patterns (EFc) were analysed using the STIRPAT model. Results suggests, that the size of Danish cropland BC from 2013 reduced slightly under the land use scenario producing an ED, EO, and ETD at 2050, lower than that of 2013. The GDP per Capita and quadratic GDP per Capita were the most important influential EFc drivers, as opposed to Danish population, for the time period of 1988-2008.