District Heating - Future Scenarios of 2015

Abstract: Four scenarios for the future district heating market were identified. The first scenario anticipates the use of nuclear waste heat for district heating as well as a full TPA. The second scenario predicts high taxes on garbage incineration and low taxes on waste heat as well as a customer price-regulation. The third scenario expects a high degree of incompatibility in integrated different district heating systems as well as a full TPA. The fourth scenario presumes that terrorism creates difficult conditions for district heating and that no re-regulation occurs. In each scenario strategic options for the parties involved were identified based on our reflections from the conducted research. The currently active market parties are encouraged to initiate a higher degree of transparency, to reinforce the compatibility development, to join a larger integrated network, to minimise their reserve capacity and to create lock-in effects with their customers. Possible new entrants are encouraged to identify new geographic areas for building new networks as well as finding an alternative use for heating.