Variability and change in Koga reservoir volume, Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Abstract: Ethiopia has long since been an area strongly affected by drought. Although there is a relativelylarge amount of fresh water present in the country, variability in rainfall and lack ofinfrastructure lead to the result that most of the population is undersupplied with water. In thisregion where water is such a valuable commodity, the Abay River is a large, mainly untappedresource. Agriculture is the largest economic activity in Ethiopia but the productivity ofagriculture here is one of the lowest in the world, making food security a serious problem for acountry with a fast growing population. The development of irrigation projects is hoped toensure food security at the household level. The Koga Dam is a key project for the Ethiopiangovernment, as a step towards achieving food self-sufficiency at both national and regionallevels for a country that has a history of draughts and famine. If this project succeeds, it will be amodel for projects to come and proof that dams and water management can bring change to theregion, particularly concerning food security. Sedimentation is a problem for many dams aroundthe world, and especially in this region. It is likely that the volume of the Koga reservoir willdecrease over time due to reservoir siltation. Variability in climate is also predicted for the regionwhich could mean years with below average rain. These two factors combined could mean adecrease in water supply for the irrigation project in the future. This study applies existingknowledge of sedimentation and annual climate variability relative to the Koga reservoir to asimple reservoir model in order to investigate current and future annual changes in thereservoir’s volume. Climate and volume change were incorporated into the water balance model.Results showed that the dam should be capable of providing enough irrigation water to farm yearround assuming average climate and climate variability and no sedimentation. However, as lowas an 11% decrease in storage could result in the reservoir drying out for at least one month ayear.