Anti-immigration Parties and Their Influence on Immigration : A qualitative study on how AIPs influence immigration policies in local governments

Abstract: Anti-immigration parties have increased in popularity and influence in Europe over the last decade. In Sweden, the biggest AIP, the Sweden Democrats, have gathered a raised position in the national and local governments. As research on the uprise and aims of these parties exist in abundance, there needs to be more research regarding their influence on the local level. This study seeks to investigate the relationship between AIPs and immigration policy on a local level by comparing municipalities across Sweden. Previous research finds that type of influence matter in terms of policy decisions. Indirect and direct influence are different types of influence that provide different effect levels; this thesis will test this theory by examining it on a hard case. Using a qualitative method, this thesis compares municipalities with different types and levels of influence held by the Sweden Democrats. By examining 2022, this thesis will also provide further knowledge regarding how the Sweden Democrats have handled the refugee crises following the war in Ukraine. As the Sweden Democrats have stated that they want immigration into Sweden to stem from nearby places, this thesis examines if their actions match that statement. In 2016, a new refugee policy was introduced in Sweden, the Settlement Act. The main aim of this reform was to create an equal distribution of refugee hosting around the municipalities in Sweden. With the background of this reform, this thesis will examine the number of refugees hosted in areas that an AIP politically influences and if discrepancies can be found.  This thesis hypothesises that H1) Indirect and direct influence by an AIP leads to lower levels of immigration, and H2) Direct influence by an AIP leads to lower levels of immigration than indirect influence.  The findings show that both level and type of influence significantly affect immigration on a local level. The case with direct influence by the Sweden Democrats shows higher discrepancies than the case with indirect influence by the Sweden Democrats. Further, the negative case with no influence by the Sweden Democrats showed a higher percentual increase in immigration compared to the other cases. This thesis finds strong support for the hypotheses, although it is essential to note that alternative explanations, such as GRP/per cap, were disclosed. Outside of the cases studied, this thesis also finds that all municipalities governed or influenced by the Sweden Democrats in Skåne have received a percentual decrease in immigration. Municipal assemblies of centre and left-wing parties have instead experienced increased immigration.