The potential for centralized photovoltaicsystems in Sweden

Abstract: Considering the long term target set by the Swedish government of having an energy system basedexclusively on renewable sources, the potential for different renewable sources need to beinvestigated. When analyzing the sources used for electricity production in Sweden today, solarPV represents a very small share. This relatively small share also mainly consists of grid-connecteddistributed PV systems, and to analyze the possibilities of making solar energy a larger share inthe electricity production in Sweden this study will focus on grid-connected centralized PV farms.The main purpose of the study is to identify the potential for grid-connected centralized PVsystems for large scale production in Sweden. This will include an identification of the mostimportant key factors influencing the profitability, an investment calculation to be aware of theprofitability, a prediction of the future development of the PV industry in Sweden and lastly themain challenges that the PV industry is facing.To conduct this study a collaboration with Vattenfall Vind AB has been made, where a case studybased on three specific locations has been implemented when analyzing both the profitability andthe key factors. These three cases are based on places where Vattenfall has existing wind farms orhas assigned for upcoming ones. These areas could be seen as a potential benefit since the companyalready has started to inspect the land area, and that wind and PV farms might be able to sharenecessities such as infrastructure.The results of the study mainly indicate that the PV industry most likely will continue develop andgrow, but the profitability of investing in grid-connected centralized PV farms does not lookpromising today or in the next coming years. This mainly due to low prices for electricity anduncertainties in the future development of the financial support policy. The location is also veryimportant for this type of installation. There are places in southern Sweden with enough insolation,but these areas can be seen as limited. To make solar energy a larger share of the electricityproduction in Sweden in a profitable way today, more investments should be made in gridconnecteddistributed PV systems rather than grid-connected centralized PV farms. PV farms forlarge scale production might though be more profitable in the future when the prices for modulesand inverters will decrease further and when the spot price increases.