Unpredictability: Natural disasters effect on rebel group recruitment

Abstract: As natural disasters become more prominent, so do their consequences. One of these effects is how natural disasters affect rebel group recruitment. To investigate these effects, a comparative across-case study, using the two rebel groups, Pattani insurgents and the Kashmir insurgents, was conducted. It is argued that as individuals’ need for belonging and stability increases when exposed to natural disasters, this will result in an increase in recruitment. The findings show that although the hypothesis of increased recruitment cannot be proven or disproven, it highlights the importance of understanding the conditions under which the natural disaster occurs. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the need to conduct more research into observing the effects of natural disasters on recruitment. This is crucial to establish more comprehensive connections and, hopefully, enable future research to benefit from the lessons learned in this paper. These insights could help to formulate policies aimed at understanding and addressing the dynamics involving rebel groups following natural disasters.