High Noon in the Himalayas

Abstract: This master’s thesis examines the escalation of the Sino-Indian border conflict in the summer of 2020. Using a modified version of Graham Allison’s multi-lens model, variants of realism, institutionalism and constructivism are applied to the case in order to find explanatory factors. The different theoretical schools also serve to clearly delineate what assumptions the identified aspects are based on and why they are important. The study finds that a broad range of factors can be identified as playing a role in the escalation. Longer term ones such as the increased assertiveness of Chinese foreign policy, the slow but steady Indian pivot towards the United States and the changing views of the Indian public coincided with short term factors like the Covid-19 pandemic, the internal pressures on the PLA and the proclamation of the Ladakh Union Territory. It also shows that some factors were stabilizing forces preventing even further escalation, such as the language games in place and the consultations and agreements in existence. This study can help shed light on other Chinese actions, the relationship between China and India, and in extension future prospects on the Sino-Indian border.