Testing the Cretaceous Diversity of Ichthyosaurs and Their Extinction Hypotheses Using a Quantitative Approach

Abstract: As portrayed in Before the Dinosaur: the Historical Significance of the Fossil Marine Reptiles, ichthyosaurs, as other Mesozoic marine amniotes, have been unfairly overshadowed by dinosaurs in both popular culture and the field of vertebrate palaeontology. Yet by the effort of dedicated researchers, work on these fish-like marine reptiles had never died out, and in fact a second wave of interest emerged in the late 20th century. Since then, research on ichthyosaurs has focused on discovery of new taxa, assessments of their palaeobiology, and quantitative analyses of their diversity. Despite ever-growing interests, patterns and mechanisms leading up to their extinction in the Cenomanian were insufficiently evaluated. In other words, hypotheses focusing on abrupt extinction linked to a crash in prey diversity, notably belemnites, over a catastrophic event at the end-Cenomanian remain poorly tested. The current project thus aims to test: 1) whether the Cretaceous diversity of ichthyosaurs reflects biological signals, and 2) correlation of their diversity with the diversity of Mesozoic cephalopods, such as belemnites and ammonites. In this regard, a species-level dataset of Cretaceous belemnites including belemnite-bearing formations was built to be employed together with the occurrence-based ichthyosaur and ammonite datasets in the same taxic level. Raw taxic counts, as observed diversities of the clades, were quantified in two different temporal scales, and compared with two sampling proxies. The model-based method was then applied to correct all taxic counts based on the two proxies in both time bins to acquire expected diversities of all the clades. Comparisons resulted in strong correlations between the clades’ observed diversities and proxies exposing biased patterns under the influence of sampling intensity. Whereas both observed and expected diversities show no evidence of a causal relationship between the predator and prey groups, suggesting that the latter’s diversity seems not being a parameter for the former’s, and thus being unsupportive for a prey-driven demise of the predator. Furthermore, the expected trend of ichthyosaurs indicates lower Albian diversity gradually declining towards their extinction in the Cenomanian, which appears to be contrasting with recent studies.