Essays about: "Interest Rate Forecasting"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 30 essays containing the words Interest Rate Forecasting.

1. 1. Credit Index Forecasting: Stability of an Autoregressive Model

   University essay from KTH/Matematik (Avd.)

   Author : Melker Wallén; Erik Grimlund; [2023]
   Keywords : Credit spreads; Time Series; Credit Risk; Index Modeling; Forecasting; Kreditspreadar; Tidsserier; Kreditrisk; Indexmodellering; Prognoser;

   Abstract : This thesis investigates the robustness and stability of total return series for credit bond index investments. Dueto the challenges which arise for financial institutes and investors in achieving these objectives, we aim to createa forecasting model which matches the statistical properties of historical data, while remaining robust, stable andeasy to calibrate. READ MORE

3. 2. Modelling Non-Maturing Deposits: Examining the Impact of Repo Rates and Volume Dynamics on Valuation Using Regression, Time Series Analysis, and Vasicek Methods

   University essay from KTH/Matematik (Avd.)

   Author : Alexandra Benckert; My Loft; [2023]
   Keywords : Non-maturing deposits; ARIMAX model; Regression analysis; Deposit volume modelling; Vasicek model for short rate; Interest rate sensitivity; Valuation of non-maturing deposits.; Icke tidsbunden inlåning; ARIMAX-modellen; Regressionsanalys; Modellering av inlåningsvolym; Vasicek-modellen för kort ränta; Räntekänslighet; Värdering av icke tidsbunden inlåning.;

   Abstract : This thesis focuses on modelling non-maturing deposits (NMD) and has been written in collaboration with Svenska Handelsbanken. The methodology includes regression analysis and time series analysis, with the Repo rate serving as an exogenous variable in both models. READ MORE

4. 3. Forecasting, Monetary Policy, Nominal Gross Domestic Product Stability, and Macroeconomic Outcomes in a suboptimal currency area. : An examination of the Eurozone

   University essay from Jönköping University/Internationella Handelshögskolan

   Author : Layton Nyanzi Mukwaya; Jordi Garcia Martinez; [2023]
   Keywords : Macroeconomics Nominal GDP;

   Abstract : The purpose of this paper is the examination of whether a strategy of using forecasts to stabilise the Nominal Gross Domestic Product (NGDP) growth rate as a nominal anchor, through a rules-based approach to monetary policy is viable in the Eurozone. The paper uses a modified Taylor rule, that uses NGDP forecasts as a variable to generate a prescribed interest rate from which the interest rate set by the European Central Bank (ECB) is subtracted to create a variable we call the Rate Gap. READ MORE

5. 4. Forecasting Swedish Inflation and Policy Rates Using Random Forests and Bullard's Modernized Taylor Rule

   University essay from Handelshögskolan i Stockholm/Institutionen för nationalekonomi

   Author : Vladimir Bondarenko; [2023]
   Keywords : Inflation Forecasting; Interest Rate Forecasting; Modernized Taylor Rule; Random Forest;

   Abstract : This paper examines whether the Riksbank could have predicted the historic inflationary surge in Sweden in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and warned the Swedish public prior to embarking on the most aggressive policy rate-hike cycle since the global financial crisis. I study the matter in two steps. READ MORE

6. 5. An Evaluation of Leading Indicators in the Context of a Swedish Recession

   University essay from Lunds universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionen

   Author : Rami Soliman; [2023]
   Keywords : Probit; Financial Crisis; Recession; Sweden; Leading Indicators; Business and Economics;

   Abstract : The aim of this paper is to evaluate potential leading indicators of a recession in Sweden. To answer the question potential leading indicators are first identified with previous findings in literature and with the current state of the Swedish financial system as background. READ MORE