Essays about: "Poisson fördelning"

Found 3 essays containing the words Poisson fördelning.

  1. 1. Favourable Opportunities in Sports Betting - A Statistical Approach to Football Goals in the Premier League

    University essay from KTH/Matematisk statistik

    Author : Fredrik Lindau; Gustaf Carle; [2022]
    Keywords : statistics; Poisson distribution; Negative Binomial distribution; Bayesian regression; football; Premier League; sports betting; market efficiency; probability theory; estimations; statistik; Poisson fördelning; Negativ Binomial fördelning; Bayesiansk regression; fotboll; Premier League; betting; marknadseffektivitet; sannolikhetsteori; skattningar;

    Abstract : The premise of this report is to delve into sports betting and whether favourable opportunities can be found, more specifically focusing on over and under odds for number of goals scored in football games of the Premier League. Using historical data from football matches several models are developed, the characteristics of goals warranting the use of probability based Poisson and Negative Binomial models, as well as Bayesian Poisson regression for goal predictions. READ MORE

  3. 2. An Extreme Value Approach to Modelling Construction Defect Insurance Claims

    University essay from Lunds universitet/Matematisk statistik

    Author : Matilda Ekermann; Ida Swartling; [2022]
    Keywords : Extreme value theory; insurance; block-maxima; peaks over threshold; Poisson process; Mathematics and Statistics;

    Abstract : Predicting future large claims, as well as the total cost, of a specific insurance is essential for insurance companies, for example when setting premium levels or purchasing reinsurance coverage. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate if extreme value theory can be applied to construction defect insurance claims. READ MORE

  4. 3. Small Cohort Population Forecasting via Bayesian Learning

    University essay from KTH/Matematisk statistik

    Author : Simon Vallin; [2017]
    Keywords : ;

    Abstract : A set of distributional assumptions regarding the demographic processes of birth, death, emigration and immigration have been assembled to form a probabilistic model framework of population dynamics. This framework was summarized as a Bayesian network and Bayesian inference techniques are exploited to infer the posterior distributions of the model parameters from observed data. READ MORE