Essays about: "Volatility forecast"

Showing result 11 - 15 of 88 essays containing the words Volatility forecast.

  1. 11. Symmetry or Asymmetry: A model comparison between different ARCH-class volatility models using Bitcoin returns

    University essay from Lunds universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionen

    Author : Hannes Wiklund; [2022]
    Keywords : GARCH; Model Confidence Set; Bitcoin; Volatility Forecasting; Business and Economics;

    Abstract : This thesis will in turn evaluate the forecast performance of different ARCH-type models' forecast ability using Bitcoin returns from 01-04-2015 to 01-04-2022. More specifically, it is of interest to see if a simple GARCH(1,1) model can outperform more sophisticated models that incorporate the asymmetry in volatility. READ MORE

  3. 12. Comparison of Indirect Inference and the Two Stage Approach

    University essay from KTH/Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS)

    Author : Victor Hernadi; Leandro Carocca Jeria; [2022]
    Keywords : Geometric Brownian Motion; Drift; Volatility; Indirect Inference; Two Stage Approach; Parameter Estimation; Stock Price Prediction;

    Abstract : Parametric models are used to understand dynamical systems and predict its future behavior. It is difficult to estimate the model’s parametric values since there are usually many parameters and they are highly correlated. READ MORE

  4. 13. Is it possible to forecast which firms will be shorted? : Evidence from S&P 500

    University essay from Linnéuniversitetet/Institutionen för ekonomistyrning och logistik (ELO)

    Author : Joakim Mårs; Tobias Stark; [2022]
    Keywords : Short selling; S P 500; fundamental ratios; abnormal returns; OLS regression; significance levels; forecasts; institutional ownership;

    Abstract : This thesis aims to examine whether it is possible to forecast which firmswill be shorted. To do this a regression was constructed using a sample of thecompanies currently included in S&P 500. READ MORE

  5. 14. Time Dependencies Between Equity Options Implied Volatility Surfaces and Stock Loans, A Forecast Analysis with Recurrent Neural Networks and Multivariate Time Series

    University essay from KTH/Matematik (Avd.)

    Author : Simon Wahlberg; [2022]
    Keywords : RNN; LSTM; GRU; vector autoregression; implied volatility surface; stock loan; equity options; multivariate time-series analysis; financial mathematics.; Rekursiva neurala nätverk; LSTM; GRU; VAR; implicerade volatilitetsytor; aktielån; aktieoptioner; multidimensionell tidsserieanalys; finansiell matematik.;

    Abstract : Synthetic short positions constructed by equity options and stock loan short sells are linked by arbitrage. This thesis analyses the link by considering the implied volatility surface (IVS) at 80%, 100%, and 120% moneyness, and stock loan variables such as benchmark rate (rt), utilization, short interest, and transaction trends to inspect time-dependent structures between the two assets. READ MORE

  6. 15. Volatility Timing using Machine Learning - An Application to a Signal Based Portfolio

    University essay from Lunds universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionen

    Author : Filippa Lövgren; Julian Marvin Ulmer; [2022]
    Keywords : Machine Learning; Support Vector Machines; VIX; Volatility Timing; Portfolio Construction; Business and Economics;

    Abstract : Recent events such as the covid-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war have led to a tremendous increase in volatility, making financial markets riskier for investors. To see whether investors can counteract or profit from such risk, we develop a volatility timed trading strategy. READ MORE