A nexus assessment of Energy and Water in Rwanda

Abstract: Rwanda is a small country in Central Africa with plans on 100% electrification and 60% renewable energy in the electricity mix by 2030. Today 31% of the country’s population has access to electricity and hydropower yields approximately half (44%) of the country’s electricity generation. The country’s plans include an aggressive development plan, which aims to foster multi-sectoral development and elevate the country from poverty. Water is a critical resource, heavily exploited by both the power and agriculture sector. This thesis intends to investigate the role of hydropower in Rwanda’s electrification plans, identify critical points in the use of water and explore the possible effects of climate change. Two energy modelling tools were used, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. Water balance equations were developed manually based water demand data from the Rwandan Ministry of Natural Resources and three climate scenarios based on data from KNMI Climate Explorer. The results show that hydropower’s share is expected to vary between 7 - 47% in the electricity mix by 2030, with its penetration highly depending on both electricity demand and climate scenario selected. It was also concluded that water availability will not be able to sufficiently cover the expected water demand in the country after 2026. Hence, Rwanda’s aggressive hydropower expansion plans might need to be reconsidered.