Evaluating machine learning models for time series forecasting in smart buildings

Abstract: Temperature regulation in buildings can be tricky and expensive. A common problem when heating buildings is that an unnecessary amount of energy is supplied. This waste of energy is often caused by a faulty regulation system. This thesis presents a machine learning ap- proach, using time series data, to predict the energy supply needed to keep the inside tem- perature at around 21 degrees Celsius. The machine learning models LSTM, Ensemble LSTM, AT-LSTM, ARIMA, and XGBoost were used for this project. The validation showed that the ensemble LSTM model gave the most accurate predictions with the Mean Absolute Error of 22486.79 (Wh) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 5.41 % and was the model used for comparison with the current system. From the performance of the different models, the conclusion is that machine learning can be a useful tool to pre- dict the energy supply. But on the other hand, there exist other complex factors that need to be given more attention to, to evaluate the model in a better way.