The Impact of the Recession on Swedish Real Estate Companies : A Study of Financial Strategy and Risk Management of Companies with Different Credit Ratings

Abstract: The world's economies are in a turbulent phase where rising inflation has hit the global and Swedish economy hard. The Central Bank of Sweden has raised the policy rate expansively in recent months, with the intention of curbing inflation. Swedish real estate companies have experienced significant debt growth in recent years, making them very sensitive to interest rate increases. The increasing financing costs are challenging for real estate companies and it is of great importance that the companies continue to maintain earnings, that interest rates do not rise too much and that they continue to have sufficient access to financing. The credit rating of real estate companies is a crucial component of their financing, as it measures the long-term risk of default and can affect the company's cost of borrowing. The purpose of the paper is to investigate what different financing options Swedish real estate companies have during a recession and how the financial strategy and risk management differs depending on the company's credit rating. Furthermore, the study will investigate how the capital structure changes depending on the measures taken. The study is based on a qualitative study conducted with semi-structured interviews to gain a comprehensive understanding of the research area. The interviews were primarily conducted with real estate companies, both rated and unrated, and all rated companies in the study have an investment grade rating. This was followed by interviews with the major Swedish banks involved in lending to real estate companies and the credit rating agencies that carry out official ratings for real estate companies. The results show that the financing options differ depending on the credit rating of the real estate company. The biggest difference is identified between companies with a credit rating in the A segment and companies with a credit rating in the triple B segment. Financing costs have increased for all companies but significantly more for companies in the triple B segment. As a result, the capital market is to a greater extent inaccessible to the triple B companies and therefore these companies choose to focus on bank financing. The study has also shown that it is of great importance for real estate companies to make a long-term decision on their financing strategy and the extent to which their credit rating is important for their financing. The study found that there are two groups of attitudes towards the credit rating. Either companies use all means to defend their credit rating, or they put their efforts into strengthening the balance sheet and maintaining bank covenants. The market conditions have also affected the capital structures of real estate companies. High inflation and rising interest rates result in higher yield requirements, which leads to falling property values and rising LTV ratios for real estate companies. Real estate companies work actively to reduce their LTV ratios by selling properties, increasing share capital, reducing the pace of investment and suspending dividends. An excessively high LTV ratio can lead to a credit rating downgrade and, depending on how the company perceives this, the actions of real estate companies may differ.