What about Peacekeepers? : Deterring Attacks against Humanitarian Workers

Abstract: This thesis seeks to understand the phenomenon of attacks against humanitarian workers by asking: why are humanitarian workers attacked in some contexts, but not in others? By exploring the effects of deterrence as a security strategy, this thesis investigates the direct link between causes of attacks against humanitarian workers and humanitarian security. It argues that when humanitarian organisations involve peacekeepers directly in their humanitarian relief activities, this is likely to lead to a decrease in attacks. This is because peacekeepers are armed and able to function as a capable and credible counterthreat against belligerents for humanitarian organisations. A game-like theoretic model of the decision-making sequence leading up to attacks in the humanitarian space is applied to illustrate this. The theoretical argument is tested quantitatively on freshly collated data on peacekeeping activities using a negative binomial count model. Unexpectedly however, the results reveal a contradictory relationship to the hypothesis. Directly involving peacekeepers in humanitarian relief activities is associated with an increase in attacks against humanitarian workers. The surprising results are found to be significant and robust overall.