An Analysis of the Swedish Real  Estate Bond Market:  Characteristics, Opportunities, and  Risks : A combination of a qualitative and quantitative study

Abstract: In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the debt capital market in Sweden experienced rapid growth, resulting in a doubling of its size. In recent years, real estate companies have become increasingly dependent on financing through the capital markets. As a result, the interdependence between the real estate and financial sectors has significantly increased. Today, the real estate market constitutes for around 50 per cent of the Swedish corporate bond market. In 2023, approximately SEK 100 bn worth of bonds are expected to mature, followed by around SEK 150 bn set to mature in 2024, compelling Sweden's property companies to implement significant alterations to their methods of financing operations. This study aims to analyse the current state of the Swedish real estate bond market, as well as an examination of opportunities and risks for investors given the current market situation. The research questions follows: What are the current characteristics of the Swedish real estate bond market? What opportunities and risks are present in the Swedish real estate bond market for investors? The study is limited to the corporate real estate bond market in Sweden, with a particular emphasis on Swedish issuers and financiers. A combination of a qualitative and quantitative method was conducted, and the study adopts an abductive approach. The findings revealed that the Swedish real estate bond market holds a prominent role in the corporate bond market and is characterised as a young market that has undergone significant growth. It presents opportunities for alternative financing, investing in distressed real estate assets, promoting sustainability and better returns from a risk-reward perspective. From a risk perspective there are several risks: the challenge of refinancing, a change in market conditions thus increasing capital costs, the credit risk, the liquidity risk, credit ratings downgrades, risk of valuations, sceptical investors and creative capital structures in the Swedish real estate market and the bond market.