An Analysis of Climate Change and its Effects on the Electricity Generation : Supporting a CLEWs assessment in Ghana

Abstract: Sustainable, effective and affordable access to energy plays a significant role when it comes to improving people's living conditions, and supporting human and economic development. Therefore, the access and availability of electricity is an important factor and indicator of how well developed a country is. Furthermore, the generation of electricity is often strongly interlinked with other sectors such as climate, land use, and water. All these resources’ systems can have a certain effect on the energy production and vice versa. It is therefore a complex sector, and it needs to be developed with these interlinkages in mind. The aim of this project is to study and analyze the future electricity system in Ghana and its linkages to climate change and water resources. In this project, the modelling tools focus to optimize the electricity generation in consideration of economic values, as well as analyzing climate change and its impact on electricity generation by hydropower. To make a projection of the electricity system in Ghana, two modelling tools were used in the study, OSeMOSYS and ONSSET. The results generated by the models give an indication of potential optimal generation mixes between 2015 and 2050, for the different set of considerations on which the scenarios were built. The projected electricity generation consists of a combination of both renewable energy technologies and fossil fuel dependent technologies. The contribution from concentrated solar power (CSP) stands for the largest share of the mix in the long term. The results also suggest that climate change most certainly will have an impact on the electricity production in Ghana, due to its effect on the performance of hydropower production. This is an indication that Ghana’s reliance on hydropower for its electricity production, could not be sustainable and reliable in the long term. Ghana is an unequally developed country and there are still many undeveloped regions with poor access to electricity, especially in the northern parts of the country. There is also a rising demand of water and land for agricultural use. Since these resources also are important for the sustainable production of electricity, further and more detailed investigation of the conflicts between these sectors is necessary for a sound and compatible sectoral development and sustainable management of resources.