DEMOCRACIES WITHOUT DEMOCRATS A quantitative study of citizens’ preferences for autocratic regimes

Abstract: What decides whether a person prefers democracy or autocracy? Can the preference be narrowed down to one single influencing factor, or is it instead a combination of several phenomena that determines it? In order to understand the shifts in autocratic tendencies globally from a macro perspective, it is crucial to study the micro perspective behind it: individuals. This essay builds on previous research regarding citizens’ preference for different regime types to map out further why some people prefer autocracy over democracy. Previous research has found that economic and political aspects affect citizens’ preference for autocracy, and this essay takes those findings one step further. By using the insider-outsider framework and combining different influential aspects, the essay tests whether being an outsider positively affects citizens’ preference for autocracy. The essay aims to test a theoretical framework in a new context to see if it is applicable and whether being an outsider affects citizens’ preference for autocracy. In a statistical analysis, the effect of the independent variable outsider is tested on two different dependent variables. Both dependent variables represent preference for autocracy but are operationalised in different ways. The analyses show a result opposite the one hypothesised, and the results are further discussed in the essay’s concluding sections. Even though the result of the analysis did not turn out as expected, it opened up further questions and possible future research.