How International Election Observers Impact Post-Election Events: The link between international observers, acceptance of results and post-election violence

Abstract: Since 1990, international election observers have been travelling the world to monitor and assess close to 1 500 elections in developing democracies. Although often championed as the primary tool of democracy promotion, little is still known about its immediate consequences. In this research, therefore, I explore the relationship between election observers' assessments and domestic electoral reactions. Specifically, I examine the link between an observer condemnation and two post-election events that are crucial for democracy: (a) all losers accepting the results and (b) post-election violence. Analysing data from national elections since 1990 using logistic regression models, my findings strengthen the idea that elections condemned by observers are more likely to experience that actors refuse to concede, as well as post-election violence – irrespective of characteristics like electoral fraud. At large, I thus conclude that what observers say matters. To their credit, observers' statements align electoral reactions to democratic norms: protest the bad elections, not the good ones. However, the link between observers and violence reveals a potential trade-off: always tell the truth, or minimise the risk of violence.