Explorative Scenarios for Future Lithium Supplies and Demand

Abstract: Because of its specific qualities, lithium is a key element for making lithium-ion batteries, which is of great relevance since the battery sector is the fastest growing user of lithium to date and with the transition towards a fully electrified transportation sector due to the current climate agenda and an even bigger increase in demand for lithium is anticipated for the coming decades. The two main sources for lithium to date are mines and brines, with brine water composing around 87 % of the world’s lithium reserves in terms of contained lithium. Salars, dominantly large salt flats in South America, provide the type of brine water that has a high concentration of lithium. These salars occur primarily in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile (the ABC-triangle), where solid lithium-compounds occur dominantly as evaporate minerals such as lithium carbonates. Lithium from salars is recovered with natural evaporation and salar-derived lithium-salts generally have a higher purity than lithium derived from pegmatite mining. However, the process of lithium extraction from salars much slower than mining lithium from pegmatite, although large amounts of energy are required and large amounts of waste rock material is produced in the process. Lithium also occurs in geothermal waters and in seawater, but at far lower concentrations then in pegmatites or salar brines, which thus requires large processing efforts to be economically attractive.The purpose of this study is to provide a modern update based on the lithium production data in metric tons from recent years and interpolate the lithium production for the remaining part of the century. Then I will assess the difference between the projections from the study by Vikström et al. 2014, that were previously used to estimate possible future production rates annually, and current production and availability estimates. To achieve this, the present study will compare the different sources of lithium all over the world, mainly hard rock and brine, with a focus on the geological aspects and the EU from a financial aspect. This thesis thus aims to assess future production trends based on most recent data on geological availability, which will be retrieved from The United States Geological Survey, and earlier forecasts with the purpose to investigate if and how previous forecasts will need to change in respect to various resource availability. The production data ranging from 1900 to 2010 from the previous study by Vikström et al., on which the previous forecast production is based on, is updated with data from 2011 to 2019. With the addition of the more recent data, a similar forecast projection will be made using the same mathematical models (logistic, Gompertz and Richards).