Reduction of Temperature Forecast Errors with Deep Neural Networks

University essay from Uppsala universitet/Luft-, vatten och landskapslära

Abstract: Deep artificial neural networks is a type of machine learning which can be used to find and utilize patterns in data. One of their many applications is as method for regression analysis. In this thesis deep artificial neural networks were implemented in the application of estimating the error of surface temperature forecasts as produced by a numerical weather prediction model. An ability to estimate the error of forecasts is synonymous with the ability to reduce forecast errors as the estimated error can be offset from the actual forecast. Six years of forecast data from the period 2010--2015 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model together with data from fourteen meteorological observational stations were used to train and evaluate error-predicting deep neural networks. The neural networks were able to reduce the forecast errors for all the locations that were tested to a varying extent. The largest reduction in error was by 83.0\% of the original error or a 16.7\degcs decrease in the mean-square error. The performance of the neural networks' error reduction ability was compared with that of a contemporary Kalman filter as implemented by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). It was shown that the neural network implementation had superior performance for six out of seven of the evaluated stations where the Kalman filter had marginally better performance at one station.

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