Finding an optimum pathway for the energy transition in the electricity sector of Bangladesh through energy modeling via OSeMOSYS

Abstract: Bangladesh is going through a massive transformation in staggering economic growth and an enormous expansion in the electricity sector. This study aims to model the electricity sector of Bangladesh via the open-source energy modeling tool OSeMOSYS that utilizes the linear cost optimization method. Four scenarios are built up to integrate the most recent developments of governmental policies and targets. BAU scenario represents the current policy scenario, the LNG replacing coal scenario exhibits the current government stands to abandon coal-based plants. The medium and high RE deployment scenario integrates renewable energy addition in varying shares according to proposed policies. The performance of the scenarios is evaluated based on three preset KPIs (LCOE, emissions, and MOSES Index) based on the 3E evaluation method. The assessment shows that the high RE deployment scenario outperforms all other scenarios in every set of evaluation criteria by having 2.4% less LCOE, 47% fewer emissions, and 11.7% higher energy security against the BAU scenario. The cross-border interconnectivity has been proved to be a substantial component for the future energy mix of Bangladesh. A sensitivity analysis shows that demand growth rate plays a substantial role in influencing economic, environmental, and energy security performance, followed by natural gas or LNG price fluctuations. After recommending the high RE deployment scenario, this study further sheds light on the opportunities and challenges of materializing it. It also suggests anticipated policy reforms required to eventuate Bangladesh's role as one of the leaders of climatically vulnerable countries.