Understanding The Impact Of Market demand For Paper And Paperboard On Swedish Ports : A scenario planning approach

Abstract: Background: The global marketplace is characterized by rapid and constantchange, resulting in complex logistics systems. The port industry, which is a crucial link in the supply chain, seeks to understand the complexity of market dynamics. Ports should understand the changing market dynamics to better meet the market demand and have a competitive advantage. One representative from the port industry is Swedish ports and the Port of Gothenburg, which will be the focus of this thesis. The market demand for paper and paperboard has been a significant driver of shipping activities in Swedish ports. The market demand for bulk and container shipping is also relevant due to its influence on the port’s operation. Furthermore, itis essential for port authorities to understand the demand-oriented infrastructure to develop strategies to meet the market dynamics. Purpose: This thesis has been undertaken on behalf of the PoG. The purpose of the thesis is to provide a clearer understanding of how the current and future market demand of paper and paperboard influence Swedish ports with scenario planning. Based on the future market demand for paper and paperboard, additional information of the future market demand for bulk and container will be included in the scenarios. By using the scenarios, recommendations will be given regarding investments the port authority at PoG needs to implement as a response to future paper and paperboard market demand. Methodology: The thesis has a qualitative case study with Port of Gothenburg as the study object. Data collection has been conducted through semi- and unstructuredinterviews from the Swedish forest industry, three forest companies and port authority at Port of Gothenburg. Additionally, scenario planning will be the main analysis method in this thesis. Conclusion: The current market demand for paper and paperboard indicates that demand for paper is decreasing, while demand for paperboard is increasing. The future market demand for paper and paperboard can develop in several ways. The authors of this thesis believe that the market demand for paper will have a structural fall with an exception for special paper. While paperboard will have a continuous increase. Furthermore, there is currently an increase of bulk and container shipping in the Port of Gothenburg. The authors believe that future market demand for bulk will be stable, while container will have an increased trend. However, as the market demand is hard to predict, the thesis presents four scenarios of different futureoutcomes of market demand for paper, paperboard, bulk- and container shipping. There are several investments needed for the Port of Gothenburg to respond to theestablished demand scenarios. Investments that will benefit Port of Gothenburg themost are Port Community System (PCS), Integrated Warehouse ManagementSystem (IWMS), Real-Time Location System (RTLS), development of port quays,larger quay cranes and floating islands, and cold ironing and renewable energy. Key words: Paper, Paperboard, forest industry, bulk, container, cargo shipping,seaport, Port of Gothenburg, scenario planning, port investments