Essays about: "election prediction"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 8 essays containing the words election prediction.

1. 1. Biased While Betting on Bernie? A cross-sectional and panel data analysis of prediction error in U.S. election prediction markets from 2015 to 2020

   University essay from Handelshögskolan i Stockholm/Institutionen för nationalekonomi

   Author : Daniel Evans; [2020]
   Keywords : prediction markets; political science; behavioral economics; U.S. elections; bias;

   Abstract : A consensus seems to have emerged that political prediction markets can lose predictive power when certain efficiency criteria are not met. With a cross-sectional dataset of 570 prediction markets about U.S. elections and a panel dataset with 6,465 days of trading from PredictIt. READ MORE

3. 2. USING SEARCH QUERY DATA TO PREDICT THE GENERAL ELECTION: CAN GOOGLE TRENDS HELP PREDICT THE SWEDISH GENERAL ELECTION?

   University essay from Uppsala universitet/Statistiska institutionen

   Author : Rasmus Sjövill; [2020]
   Keywords : Polling; Big Data; Google Trends Data; Political Prediction; Web Search Data;

   Abstract : The 2018 Swedish general election saw the largest collective polling error so far in the twenty-first century. As in most other advanced democracies Swedish pollsters have faced extensive challenges in the form of declining response rates. To deal with this problem a new method based on search query data is proposed. READ MORE

4. 3. Election Forecasting in a Multiparty System

   University essay from Göteborgs universitet/Institutionen för nationalekonomi med statistik

   Author : Stefan Lindborg; [2019-01-31]
   Keywords : Election forecasting; Polling; Multiparty systems; Dynamic Linear Models; DLM; Kalman filtering; Swedish elections;

   Abstract : This bachelor thesis in statistics covers the subject of election forecasting in a multiparty system, using polling data, that is data collected to measure party support, and dynamic linear models (DLMs) with Kalman filtering. In terms of decision-making the outcome of an election can be thought of as an uncertainty. READ MORE

5. 4. Forecasting Election Results: A Bayesian Frequentist Comparison

   University essay from Lunds universitet/Statistiska institutionen

   Author : Oldehed Erik; [2019]
   Keywords : Bayesian forecasting; frequentist forecasting; non-homogeneous hidden Markov models; autoregression; kernel smoothing; Mathematics and Statistics;

   Abstract : We present a Bayesian and frequentist comparison when forecasting elections through polls. Our focus is on studying the differences of these approaches in forecasting elections. An evaluation of the fit is performed using the odds ratio. READ MORE

6. 5. What we talk about when we talk about winners : Using clustering of Twitter topics as a basis for election prediction

   University essay from Linnéuniversitetet/Institutionen för datavetenskap och medieteknik (DM)

   Author : Molly Arhammar Andersson; [2019]
   Keywords : Twitter; clustering; cluster analysis; ClusTop; election prediction; election results; American 2016 election;

   Abstract : Social media has over the years partly become a platform to express opinions and discuss current events. Within the field of Computer Science, Twitter has been used both as the basis for political analysis - for example using sentiment analysis to predict election results - and within the field of cluster analysis, where the question of how to best design and use an algorithm to extract topics from tweets has been studied. READ MORE