Hur kan Östersjöns salinitet påverkas av ett förändrat klimat?

Abstract: The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish seas in the world, with a characteristic salinity gradient from its northernmost point southward towards the Danish Straits. This gradient is caused by a high freshwater input from its surrounding catchment areas. With a low evaporation rate, this leads to an abundance of freshwater which is forced to flow from the Baltic Sea to the North Sea through the Danish Straits. Studies indicate a future accelerated hydrological cycle caused by climate change, which would lead to an increased difference between fresher and more saline oceans. In this study, the hydrological cycle of the Baltic Sea has been modelled to investigate a potential change in salinity as an effect of climate change. This has been done for three of the climate scenarios adopted by the IPCC in 2014, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicates a decreased salinity in the entire Baltic Sea, in all climate scenarios. Similar studies shows an even greater decrease in salinity. The results are uncertain because of the many simplifications and assumptions that have been necessary to limit the scope of this study.