Forest growth under future climate change in the context of bioenergy – case studies of combined heat and power plants in Sweden

Abstract: The pressure to achieve net-zero emissions has pushed for new technologies including carbon capture and storage (CCS) based on the combustion of biomass (BECCS). While bioenergy is a relatively mature industry in Sweden, the addition of CCS may increase the demand for local biomass. Furthermore, previous studies on the potential of BECCS in Sweden have not considered the impacts of climate change of future forest growth. This thesis aims to fill in the gaps of future forest growth under warming climate, specifically under the context of BECCS being implemented in Swedish industry. Three combined heat and power (CHP) plants were selected for a case study. It was assumed that these plants will source forest residues from Swedish forest as their major fuel. The dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS was applied to simulate current and future forest growth under changing climates. It was found that standing volume could increase approximately 30% in Northern and Central Sweden, which could be beneficial to the CHP plants there. But the outlook for Southern Sweden was less positive, with smaller increase of standing volume for pine trees and potentially up to 10% decrease of standing volume for spruce trees. This suggests that an alternative fuel may be desired for CHP plants in Southern Sweden. The potential negative impacts of removing forest residues were also discussed. It was suggested that comprehensive, thorough investigation be performed before moving ahead with sourcing forest residues to ensure the sustainability of such alternative is well-maintained.