From climate change to anarchy? : A study of the effects of long-term climate change on the dynamics of violent conflict in Kenya 2007-2008

Abstract: This paper studies the effects of long-term climate change on the dynamics of violent conflict in the Kenyan crisis of 2007-2008. Climate change has been found to worsen livelihood conditions in East Africa, leading to a higher competition for resources and increased intergroup tensions. This, in turn, leads to a higher risk for violent conflict. The findings indicate that geographical areas that were more severely affected by the effects of long-term climate change were more likely to experience eruptions of violence during the 2007-2008 conflict. Even when controlling for other factors thought to influence the outbreak of violent conflict, this relationship continues to hold. The exact nature of the links between the two phenomena is still to be proven, but the findings seem to be relatively robust, providing a solid basis for future research on the often overlooked area of long-term climate change and its effects on violent conflict.