Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Tree Cover Densities in Nigeria with a Proposal of States Suitable for Climate Mitigation

Abstract: With an increase in temperature (T) and a change in precipitation (P) patterns due to climate change, global conditions for tree growth are changing and shifting. While some areas experience an increase in P, favoring tree growth, many regions are also predicted to show a decrease in P, leading to trends of desertification. This study examines the projected climate change in Nigeria, located in Sub-Saharan Africa, based on RCP 8.5 and using CORDEX climate data from (ESGF, 2013) in ArcGIS Pro. It finds an increase in T by up to 2.5°C and 3.9°C in future scenarios 2041 – 2050 (1) and 2071 – 2080 (2), respectively. P is projected to increase in some areas of the country (by up to 522mm/year (1) and 625mm/year (2)) and decrease mostly in north-eastern Nigeria (by up to -352mm/year (1) and -394mm/year (2)). The study furthermore looks at tree cover densities, divided into categories “dense”, “moderately dense”, and “sparse” and finds a tree cover density shift, with special focus on land conversions from “moderately dense” to “sparse”, covering a total area of 133,167km2 (=14.4% of total area). Lastly, this study proposes five states suitable for possible climate mitigation strategies, based on their projected climate and tree cover in the future.