A Computational Model for Optimal Dimensional Speed on New High-Speed Lines

Abstract: High Speed Lines (HSL) in rail passenger services are regarded as one of the most significant projects in many countries comparing to other projects in the transportation area. According to the EU (European Council Directive 96/48/EC,2004) , high-speed lines are either new-built lines for speeds of 250km/h or greater, or in some cases upgraded traditional lines. At the beginning of 2008, there were 10,000 km of new HSL lines in operation, and by taking into account the upgraded conventional lines, in total, there were 20,000 km line in the world. The network is growing fast because of the demand for short travelling time and comfort isincreasing rapidly. Since HSL projects require a lot of capital, it is getting more important for governments and companies to estimate and to calculate the total costs and benefits of building, maintaining, and operating of HSL so that they can decide better and more reliable in choosing between projects. There are many parameters which affect the total costs and benefits of an HSL. The most important parameter is dimensional speed which has a great influence on other parameters. For example, tunnels need larger cross section for higher speed which increases construction costs. More important, higher speed also influences the number of passengers attracted from other modes of transport. Due to a large number of speed-dependant parameters, it is not a simple task to estimate an optimal dimensional speed by calculating the costs and benefits of an HSL manually. It is also difficult to do analysis for different speeds, as speed changes many other relevant parameters. As a matter of fact, there is a need for a computational model to calculate the cost-benefit for different speeds. Based on the computational model, it is possible to define different scenarios and compare them to each other to see what the potentially optimal speed would be for a new HSL project. Besides the optimal speed, it is also possible to analyze and find effects of two other important parameters, fare and frequency, by cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The probability model used in the calculation is based on an elasticity model, and input parameters are subject to flexibility to calibrate the model appropriately. Optimal high-speed line (OHSL) tool is developed to make the model accessible for the users.