Governing with the Commons : A quantitative study on the effects of Civil Society on Rebel Governance

Abstract: What is the impact of civil society on rebel governance? The field of rebel governance has gained increased attention recently, but few researchers highlight the interactive relationship between rebels and local communities. As the principal organisational tool for civilian populations, civil society has been largely overlooked. In this thesis I present a theoretical argument that rebels are likely to cooperate with civil society in establishing governance institutions. Civil society will utilise its expertise, legitimacy, and mobilisation capacity to pressure the rebels to commit to governance, as well as to aid them in this effort. I test this theory by conducting a quantitative study using zero-inflated negative binomial models with data from VDEM and RQSI, with 4800 observations of conflict-years between 1946 and 2012. I find that civil society has a positive relationship with the scope of rebel governance, but only if initial institutions are present. When none are present, civil society decreases the likelihood of new institutions being established. It has become increasingly clear that local civilian actors have agency and can significantly affect the decisions made by rebels. Understanding the effect of civil society helps us to deeper understand this dynamic and helps explain why and how rebels decide to govern.